John Kerry
published an op-ed in yesterday's
Wall Street Journal suggesting that, based on Goerge W. Bush's economic record in the office, America deserves a better "CEO." I wanted to take a look at it, and try to discern what he could be doing better.
His first point of attack is, of course, jobs. You'll recall, I'm sure, that it was not too long ago that the Democratic nominee for president was saying that Bush had the worst economic record since Herbert Hoover. In conjuring the ghosts of the Great Depression, with it's historic job loss and unemployment, Kerry is advocating voting Bush out of office based on the unemployment rate.
While the private sector will always be America's engine for innovation and job creation, President Bush has failed to take any responsibility for missing opportunities to strengthen the conditions for investment, economic confidence and job creation.
While it's hard to argue that Bush will be the only president to preside over a net loss of jobs in modern history, should we really vote him out of office because of it? In September of 1996, when Bill Clinton was running for re-election, the
unemployment rate was at 5.3%. In September of 2004, when George Bush is running for re-election, the unemployment rate is 5.4%. Given the crash of the technology sector of the economy in 2000 (down 37% in a 3 month period, while Clinton was still in office), the effect of the September 11th attacks on the airline and tourism industries in the U.S. (Kerry
calls these factors "an assortment of blame and excuses"...but did they not happen?), is a one-tenth of a percent difference really that bad?
Yet what President Bush cannot explain is how the last 11 presidents before him--Democrats and Republicans--faced wars, recessions and international crises, and yet only he has presided over lost jobs, declining real exports, and the swing from a $5.6 trillion surplus to trillions of dollars of deficits.
This last bit about the surplus always struck me as a bit disingenuous. When Clinton announced the budget surplus in 1998, it was a projected surplus, just like all the deficit talk now is projected out, usually over the next 10 years. The surplus also assumed a heady growth rate over that time frame, one that was obviously unsustainable due to the normal fluctuations of the business cycle and the aforementioned drop in the stock market. Kerry pledges to cut the deficit in half in 4 years. So does Bush. But what neither of them say is that to achieve that cut, nothing really has to be done. Or, in other words, Bush is already cutting the deficit. The
Chicago Tribune's
Steven Chapman, via
Drezner:
President Bush and Sen.. John Kerry both promise that in the next four years, they will cut this year's $445 billion federal budget deficit in half. To which serious students of the budget reply: Big, fat, hairy deal. The vow is only slightly more risky than promising that four years from now, everyone will be four years older. All the next president needs to do to cut the deficit in half, you see, is ... nothing. Leave existing laws and policies in place, without changing a thing, and the deficit would dwindle to a mere $228 billion.
For that, we don't need a president.
Kerry and Bush, to be fair, do not propose to do nothing. They have all sorts of plans to shower citizens with new spending programs and tax cuts, even though we can't pay for the ones we've got. But they insist they can hand out these goodies while making big advances against the deficit--Bush by cracking down on new spending, Kerry by repealing tax cuts for the rich. To assume they'll actually attack the deficit requires a suspension of disbelief. The Bush who says he'll hold down domestic outlays, after all, is the same Bush who has never vetoed a spending bill, or any other bill...
Kerry is more believable only because he doesn't even feign interest in spending discipline. The National Taxpayers Union Foundation estimates that all his promises would raise annual federal outlays by $226 billion a year. Some of this would be paid for by repealing some of the Bush tax cuts, but much of it would come from piling up debt for our children and grandchildren. The anti-deficit Concord Coalition figures that based on their public commitments, either Bush or Kerry would enlarge the projected deficit over the next 10 years by about $1.3 trillion.
So, tell me again, John, why I should vote for you?
Kerry continues by piling on offshore outsourcing, that much hyped phenomenon that is supposedly costing America so many jobs. In his typically straight-forward style, Kerry tell us how he would deal with offshoring:
I am not trying to stop all outsourcing, but as president, I will end every single incentive that encourages companies to outsource.
So, wait, is he for it, or against it? Will he try to stop it, or not? I still don't know. But I do know that he shouldn't. Offshoring is nothing more than the 21st century's version of
comparative advantage, which we all learned about in high school. If you haven't already
, please take the time to read Drezner's "
The Outsourcing Bogeyman," published in
Foreign Affairs a few months back.
Kerry next takes on Bush's tax cuts, which he calls "deficit-increasing," and "backwards." He would rectify this economic mistake by....wait, what? By cutting
more taxes?
Under my plan, the tax cuts would be extended and made permanent for 98% of Americans. In addition, I support new tax cuts for college, child care and health care--in total, more than twice as large as the new tax cuts President Bush is proposing.
If tax cuts are so bad for the economy, Senator Kerry, why are you proposing more of them?
He continues on in the same vein, asserting that he could cut costs in our nation's health care system by embracing technology and cutting red tape.
Our hospitals and doctors have the best technology for saving lives, but often still rely on pencil and paper when it comes to tracking medical tests and billing. As a result, we spend over $350 billion a year on red tape, not to mention the cost of performing duplicative or redundant tests. My plan will modernize our information technology, create private electronic medical records, and create incentives for the adoption of the latest disease management.
This is a great idea, and I'm all for it. However, he neglects to mention that the current administration is doing just that.
It's already begun. Former Wisconsin governor and current Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson gave an interview to
Wired on this exact topic:
A doctor will be able to use electronic health records to see where the patient is, who he's seen, what tests he's had, and what medicines he's on. And doctors will be able to get that information in real time - they'll have immediate knowledge of the patient. It'll help prevent mistakes and improve the quality of health care for everybody.
...
I think it's going to move quickly. I know everybody else says it takes time. But I'm pushing. I want a lot of this done by autumn.
Again, why do I need Kerry for this?
He concludes by repeating the canard of a ban on stem-cell research, allegedly engaged by a pro-life administration that doesn't want to cure diseases or help old people. (As a side point, if the Republican party is so heavily in the pocket of biotech and pharmaceutical companies, who stand to make untold sums of money from the eventual application of this technology, which is Bush "banning" it?) Sez the F-bomb:
My plan would invest in basic research and end the ban on stem-cell research.
Again,
there is no ban on stem cell research. The restrictions apply only to federal monies and
new lines of stem cells (created after August of 2001), and there is no restriction on private funding into this research.
Overall, I can't say I'm impressed with Kerry's pitch. Either his position is so nebulous or contradictory as to be practically unfathomable, or he is advocating positions already taken by the current administration.
Conversely, I'm not saying that Bush is faultless, or that his economic policies have been any better or worse than any other recent president. But I sure don't see why I need to vote him out, based on Kerry's assertions.